Friday, February 11, 2011

Friday February 11 Picks

Pretty good card this Friday night. Temperature's are looking to beign to improve in the coming week and lets hope our handicapping follows suit!

Start = +$1,399.00

Race 1
1) Monsignor Flan - Shows two recent breaks and that's not encouraging. HOWEVER, the last break was from the 10 slot. Not sure how much of a chance he may have had anyway. SO...IF you disgard the last race, the prior two were very strong. Moves back inside. May not offer much of a price, and the breaks may make him a risk, but I feel he's hard to leave out.

2) Edgar - If this horse wins or beats me I'll smack myself. It's a long story, an inside joke, so because of that I may have to throw in for laughs.

3) Crypto Man - Last race parked at quarter from 10 slot. Fades badly late. Race before that parked the mile and finished a strong fourth, which I LOVE to see. Same class and much improved post. I think he will go to the top but I'm hoping someone will retake quickly. If so he'll get a smoother journey than he's been in lately and has a great shot.

4) Tilly Bomb - Has won $14,700 so he's in with the claiming tag. Seems to either win, or throw in the towel. Tetrick lands on the 5, and this one seems to need the right trip. If he gets he, he's more than capable...but will he?

5) Whatnblazes - Tetrick sticks with a Ford trainee here. Qualified OKAY it seems, but his first start back last time he only lost by a nose. Because Tetrick is here, I feel you can't ignore.

6) Enny Youngman - Squeezes in for the condition by $494. Beat a lesser class two back, and was a rail riding 3rd in last from same class as this. Not many outer tier moves and I do forsee Dave Miller going to the rail and not leaving until late. Won't be easy.

7) Spirit Raycer - Has "the angle"...almost. Out of $30,00CL and then the parked out mile at the $17,500 level. Big driver change from Berry to Gingras. Only knock is again landing outside. Likely blasts out, and this is the horse that could give the 3 a trip.

9) Fortissimo - Shows zero early speed, so he'll probably be at the back early. Kills his chances the way I see it.

7-3-5-4

$2 Tri 7/3 w 1/3/5/7 w 1/3/4/5/6/7 = $48
$10 ExBx 3/7 = $20

Race 3
1 Entry) - Burke entry again in series action. Have to include. Very well may be 1/5 or so with Meirs Hanover and No Monkeys Allowed. Makes the race a non bet if you ask me.

2) Summer Camp - right back to his winning ways with the better post. This race will be 1 2 or 2 1...BORING.

I really see no use talking about the rest of the hores to be honest. Sniper Seelster might have a shot and will have a bit of value. A pass for me

2-1-4-6

Race 4
1) Tell Me A Story - Big drop here and lands on the rail. Only thing that bothers me is no recent Meadowlands starts. The rail helps big time, so if he can handle the mile track he should be close.

3) Ellen's Isle - Broke in the final of the Superbowl, so I gues we'll toss that. I'll be honest, I really don't know how to compare the classes, but on form alone I'll throw in for sure.

5) Newport Volo - Won for me two weeks back for the challenge and for a nice trifecta. It's a bump up a bit from that class. Again, shows the Opens which was one of the main reason's I liked him. Can't leave him out now right?

8) SJ's Super Star - Done well with Sears for trainer Kent Sherman but the horse shows little to no early speed. From post 8 I see it hard getting into the race early. If the pace is fast enough and he's positioned right he can win. Sears is the master at putting horses where they belong...

9) Dink Adoo - Said it before and I'l say it again. How can you not like this horse? Post 9 stinks though, won't be easy.

10) Konchie - Are you seroius!? Look at that race two back at the Meadowlands. Two wide for a half mile! and still finished in 1:58, good for 6th...placed 5. I woulda put a large sum of money last week, but it was Freehold and I would have made the horse 1/5, or even 1/9! Offers a price, and I'll play him.

10-1-3-5-9 (Konchie is scratched)

$4 Tri 10 w 1/3/5 w 1/3/5/8/9 = $48
$5 Tri 1/3 w 1/3/5 w 1/3/5/8/9= $60

Race 5
2) Shacked Up - Did much better than I thought on return to M1. Now gets a better post, and I foresee a speed try here. Could go far with that tactice with this field.

3) Ramona Disomma - A quick pace and she'll be heard from late. Finished 7th last week but only 1.75 back! Offers value.

4) Ideal Newton - Needed that start for sure. Wasn't GREAT but it wasn't bad by any means! Little value here, but can't ignore.

5) Jasperthat A - Rail rider, and I'm not a fan of those types. However it's a short field so it will keep her close the whole race...maybe.

6) Red Star Hottie - The other speed in the race. She'll blast to get the lead and I think it will be this one on top with Shacked up sitting second.

2-6-4-3

Race 6
6-7-5-8

Race 7
3) Natalie - Last chance for me. I really thought this one would come back stronger and she's failed me every time. Inside post, reamains in the same class. Don't let me down!

8) Lightning Dragon - Wow, how about that consistency. One out of money finish ont he program lines. Do Not Leave Out.

10) Linden Beauty - Yes it's post ten, BUT has "the angle"!!!!!! My top choice becuase of that AND she's had recent starts in tougher classes.

10-8-3-1

$20 Win 10 = $20

Race 8
4-2-7-8

Race 9
1-5-4-2

Race 10
1) Shanghai Lil - Hurt me last week on an angle I hate. Rail rider...not cool

2) Southwind Swallow - Won last week, but this is a whole new ball game. Sears off.

3) Cuz She Can - Lures Tetrick away from Omen Hanover and the Surick barn. Back to the top.

4) Symphony In Motion - Got a nice smooth trip last week and came up with the win. Looks for that nice tuck again.

5) Laughandbehappy - Just missed last week. Back to the speed here which will mix things up!

6) Omen Hanover - Again, I know the trainer and I love this horse. Might be too high, but gets the article on her and the trainer. Is it an "Omen"?

7) Go On BB - Pretty smooth trip last week but the tactics have to be different from the outside slide. It is only a 7 horse field. Does Gingras blast out, or sit and save a bit?

5-3-4-7

Race 12
7-4-10-5

Start = +$1,399.00
Tonight = -$148.00
Total = +$1,251.00

Good Luck!

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