First I must start by making two quick points. First, most of the races on tonights card stink. Second, because they stink and are low class races anything is possible. I've learned from Freehold's 4000CL that seemingly consistent horses will suddenly go on a "cold streak" while other horses who are easy tosses on paper show up with a victory. I've come to realize that this is the case becuase the horses are not that great; plain and simple. Now, onto the races for tonight!!
Start = +$1.50
Race 1
2) Rickie - Drops slightly after his first start off a short break and also gets a cozy inside post. Finished 3rd from the outside last. I see no reason this one won't be involved come crunch time.
4) Newport Volo - My pick for the challenge. Coming off a second in a qualifier in a pretty nice time, 1:56.4. Prior to that broke in a higher class so I can forgive that. Shows Opens, albeit from Saratoga, on the program which I've learned from past experiences DOES matter. Has hurt me, and at big prices, so maybe this one offers a little value? Also has Tetrick, who is hot!
5) Colin Power - Picked this fella last year in the challenge several times and gave me some nice money during that run. HOWEVER, hasn't raced since August; not what I like to see. Qualifier was slow and looks like a joy ride for Chris Lems!? Only positive, I guess? is the lowest class at the Big M, sooooo anythings possible?
6) Halfpipe - Reminds me of Captain Primeau, and I think we all know about him! Doesn't show a ton of breaks on his program lines, but he is prone to them! Having said that, he stays trotting, he's got a legit shot; especially in a field like this. Watch the value, too low I'd be willing to play elsewhere.
7) Big Sky Revenue - For some reason I remember this one at a big price doing well last year? I could be wrong. A Rucker trainee so that makes me look twice. Out of the Superbowl who had Dolce Ducci, he's pretty good. In some "stakes" races in Illinois, has Sears, but might be at the mercy of pace and trip and from out here, who knows! Underneath...given a price?
10) Macs Bad Boy - Hard to like way out here, but again it's a low condition, so anything is possible. Does show speed so Andy can get him involved early and with a nice trip I guess I wouldn't be shocked...
$5 Tri 4 w 2/6/7/10 w 2/6/7/10 = $60
Race 3
1) Muscles To Spare - Friend of mine picked this one for the challenge in his last start and he pooped the bed. Back to the claiming level with the rail in a wide open race. Finished behind Tilly Bomb twice recently would would trample this field. Rail ride with room late, why not?
3) Dynamic Preacher - First start off a short layoff, and he broke, not good. Did win at this level at the Big M but it was in November. First of all, he needs to stay flat, then he needs what looks like a perfect trip; only positive is Tetrick's aboard. Can he, sure why not, but will he...I doubt it.
4) April Sunshine - First start off a shot layoff wasn't bad with a third place finish, but it was at Freehold. I forsee this one getting out midpack and finding the rail, and not leaving. This strategy gives her a small chance late, but I'll let her prove it to me on the mile track.
5) Broadway Showcase - Boy that's a lot of qualifiers...
8) Swan Image - Drops slightly, but is moved outside. In my opinion, as well as I'm sure countless others, class alone from this one show put this field behind him, but that's why they race! Anything is possible.
9) Spirit Raycer - Continues the bad post blues BUT this is a drop and he won a 30000CL from the 8 hole two back. Pat Berry needs to put this one in the right spot, and if he does he's gotta great shot.
$5 Tri 8/9 w 1/8/9 w 1/8/9 = $20
Race 9
3) Tiber Hanover - Has my betting angle! Moves inside off two outside posts. Shows NW$27,500L5! Lots to like if you ask me!
8) Kings Road - 2, 1, 2, 1, 1 in last 5. Not bad, but the wins were hard fought! Sooner or later it will catch up to him!
$20 Win 3 = $20
$10 Exacta Box 3/8 = $20
:: Other Notes ::
Race 5
1) Dolce Ducci - If this one doesn't win, the entry probably will.
1A) Ellen's Isle - If this one doesn't win, the entry probably will.
2) Zeitgeist - Did beat Ellen's Isle in last so if the entries falter, Zeit will be right there!
4) Willie Count - Tetrick's choice.
Race 8
2) Arbeedo - Remember her doing quite well in NJSS action when younger. Been of for a bit, but the qualifer looked good. Inside post helps.
7) Don't Deny Me - Another, on class alone, should probably win this, but is the form there? Off a few weeks and only a qualifier before that. Hmmmmmm.....
Start = +1.50
Tonight = -$120
Total = -$118.50
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
No comments:
Post a Comment