Thursday, February 3, 2011

Saturday January 15 Picks

One bad day won't keep me down. Playing baseball helped a lot in dealing with failure. 30% batting avg is good! It also helps that it's a mythical bankroll. I plan to get it all back tonight though!!!

Total = -$104

Saturday January 14

Race 6
2) Beau Rivage N - Tried to find a program from closing night at the Meadowlands but couldn't. I believe he won at double digit odds and he had the betting angle I love. And I missed it!! I do think this is too high, and I'm not a fan of Grismore but the rail does help.

5) Poker Hat - Veteran or seems to show up when you least expect it in my experience with him. To me, this is one of those spots. Should get a price and would give you a juicy price on some exotics?

6) Bettor Sweet - Chased this guy a little last year and he only had a limited amount of starts. But I think he's back. Chased a tough Vlos last week and before that was facing the best of the best. Hard to see him losing this one on paper, but that's why they race!

7) Presidential Order - I have no idea what Pena did, but whatever it was it worked! Rattled off a nice win streak last year all while climbing the class ladder up to Open company. However, I've never really liked this horse. Don't ask me why. Because of that, he will probably hurt me.

8) Schoolkids - Raced nicely in series action at Chester. Might be bias here as I know the trainer, but the horse is good. Only knock is post 8. Sears needs to find a way to get into the flow!

Real Celebration scares me because he's burned me in the past. Let's hope he doesn't tonight! Smellthecolornine was with Burke I think? I'll leave out from post 9 though.

$5 Tri 6 w 5/7/8 w 2/5/7/8 = $45

Race 6
3) Philos Hanover - Veteran with speed and does show higher conditioned races on his race lines. Inside post is huge here and he could be in line for a nice smooth journey.

4) Cash Cab - I think he needed that one last week. He was in with Open and Preferred horses for the past few months. Does lose Sears, but gets Tetrick...no bad at all. Right to the top and all the way? Maybe!

5) Hagi - Suspiciously Sears choice. Steal Brower's words here "sign of confidence or loyalty?" Who knows. Horse is in the same class and usually i like to see a last race on the front end, but as the favorite faded to fifth. The fractions weren't all that quick either. Granted it was cold. I'm making too many excuses now...that says something.

8) Mypanmar - Always like a horse who won you money in his last race. Showed speed at start and finish of the Noysoyoung pace. Does move outside now, and the journey might not be so smooth. Hard to leave out a veteran of this caliber so I think I'll use underneath.

Mr Hallowell has faced better and scares me slightly, but I like others more. Spy N gets a nice 9/2 morning line but how do you handicap a horse with 1 race on a mile track and almost no information before that? I'm not sure, but I've said it before and been screwed! I hope post 10 is too much!

$5 Tri - 4 w 3/5/8 w 3/5/8 = $30

Race 8
3) Rescue Plan - He's dropping, moving to an inside post, and gets Andy back. I'm a little surprised he gets a 10/1 morning line, but I hope it stays around there. Others have lots of questions so it makes my play easy!

Don't Fool Me now always won on class drops, then struggled when going back up so that's a pass for me. Cheyenne Barry, Allamerican Daddy, Johnny Absolut and Beth's Boy all seem to be at mercy of pace and trip. Well if Rescue goes to the top, that might be all she wrote...

$20 Win 3 = $20

Race 11
3) Drive All Night - Dropping significantly, that's a plus; moves inside, that's a plus; last time in similar classes a 1st, 2nd, 1st, 3rd and that's a plus. What's not to like. Hm, let me think.............

4) Master Stroke - Another taking a pretty big drop, and Pena is the trainer. Gotta take a good hard look here. $113k last year and it wasn't on accident. With the 4 post Pierce has options.

6) Jetty - Seemed a bit flat after a rail ride last week, but is dropping. Was in the I95 facing some of the better horses in the sport. Driver change may help and I think he'll be a decent price with some of the other in here, I like that!

10) Noble Falcon - The driver carousel continues with Sears back on this one. I've always liked this horse but post 10 is certainly not good, and neither is being inconsistent last year. Sears has to find a way to get into it from way out here and with some good horses inside. I'll use underneath.

$2 Tri - 3/4 w 3/4/6/10 w 3/4/6/10 = $24
$10 Exacta Key Box 8 w 3/4 = $40

Start = -$104
Plays = $159 (The first time I wrote the thread the bet was $189...dammit : : : GO BIG OR GO HOME!)

::Other notes::

Race 3
8) St Elmo Hero - I'm not sure if you heard, but this horse hasn't lost yet. Enough said...

Race 4
2) Michael's Marvel - Might be one of the lowest classes he's ever been in? Would have played in my picks, but I don't foresee a high price. Not worth the risk.

Race 7
4) Jl's Man Of Action - For some reason he's jumping off the page at me. No I don't have the program, but his name seems to be screaming at me! Remembering bad post blues but still racing his eyeballs out? Hunch play? Maybe...

10) Boiler Bob The Qb - Didn't like him closing night and he showed up big from a similar spot. Could he do it again, yeah why not?

Race 9
1) Whiskey Pete - I don't like him, and I don't know why. Maybe it's personal? I'd go with others, but he has been good of late.

4) Corkey Baran - He went some huge miles last year, but when he tailed off he hasn't been back since! Maye a new meet will bring back the old Baran?

5) Southwestern Dream - Another who was awesome for a while but hasn't shown it in quite some time. Has his moments and with a field like this maybe this will be another?

9) Blue Claw - Stay away if you ask me. Don't ever remember him being this high and he gets the 9 hole. Bad combo for sure.

Race 10
3) Vlos - If you've paid attention to racing lately, you need not read any longer. Incredibly consistent as of late with an impressive mile last week. Unless there is something we don't know, he should be a HUGE factor.

4) Blatantly Good - Won the Pres last year I think with Richie Silverman pumping his fist crossing the line. Gotta love the emotion. Don't remember him racing a lot lately though. Being the first leg could he need one. Possibly...

5) Golden Receiver - I still remember a huge exacta with this one at Pocono I think and wondering why his odds were so high! He's a speedster and if he gets to the top and controls the pace, he could be tough to catch.

6) Western Shore - Another that paid huge with Dial or No Dial and Vintage Master and I missed it. Classy horse who deserves respect. As good a shot as any.

7) Cinderella Guy - Very good here a year or so ago. But hasn't shown much recently.

9) Thisbigdogwillfight - Loved this guy when he came from Balmoral the first time. Him and Manhardt came over to the east coast and it immediately paid off. Will give you a good price.

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